Persuasion Of The Serbs

Sydney Morning Herald

Monday August 8, 1994

LAST year when the Serbian leader, Slobodan Milosevic, promised to close the border with Bosnia, his word soon proved worthless. It is too early to know how much it means this time. UN sanctions have brought the economy of the rump Yugoslavia, comprising Serbia and Montenegro, to its knees. Hardship there will increase with the onset of winter. If it is the only way to get sanctions against his country lifted, President Milosevic this time may well keep his word.

On past perfomance, however, President Milosevic will hardly do more than is necessary. There is little hope, therefore, of ensuring that his support for the Bosnian Serbs is fully withdrawn unless other pressures are also maintained. Sanctions against Belgrade appear to have begun to work because they have been accompanied by a growing co-operation between Russia and NATO to end the war in Bosnia and a credible threat by the US and its allies to lift the embargo on arms supplies to the Bosnian Muslims. The maintenance of these pressures - and the continued willingness to use air strikes against Bosian Serb forces which violate agreed truce arrangements - will be vital to persuade the Serbs on both sides of the Serbia-Bosnia border that the time has come to end the war.

This uncertain but hopeful point has been reached by isolating not only the Bosnian Serbs but their protectors in Serbia itself. The Bosnian Serbs have been unwilling to stop fighting as long as they have been able to gain territory in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Even though they probably reached the limit of that ambition some time ago, they have resisted the peace plan agreed to by Bosnia's Muslims and Croats. Even with scant hope of further territorial gains, the Bosnian Serbs are unwilling to stop fighting because that means giving up territory already won in the past 28 months. Yet obviously they must. The peace plan agreed to by Bosnia's Muslims and Croats concedes large areas to the Serbs. The Muslims and Croats cannot be expected to concede more. That much seems to be accepted by President Milosevic, at least with words. From a position of support for Serb territorial ambitions in Bosnia-Herzegovina, President Milosevic now denounces the "insane political ambitions and greed" of the Serbs in Bosnia led by Radovan Karadzic.

Ensuring President Milosevic remains of that opinion, and acts on it, is vital. Pressure on Belgrade is the most positive measure the United Nations has allowed itself to take in this conflict. It stands in contrast with the range of reactive measures against the aggression of the Bosnian Serbs that have so far been taken, with such painfully slow and uncertain effect. However earnestly Belgrade now pleads for sanctions to be eased, its blandishments must be resisted until the purpose of sanctions - specifically Bosnian Serb acceptance of the peace agreement - are fully achieved.

The process of persuasion may take time. It is quite likely to be interrupted and prolonged by convulsions within the Bosnian Serb leadership before it finally accepts the inevitable. Now, however, the closing of the Serbia-Bosnia border is the best hope for peace. It not only begins to starve the Bosnian Serbs of weapons and supplies, it also completes their political isolation. That, it must be hoped, will force an end to what President Milosevic, for all his other doubtful utterances, in this case correctly describes as the "insane political ambition and greed" which still grip the Bosnian Serbs.

© 1994 Sydney Morning Herald

Back to News Index | Back to Home